The beginning of a multi-part observation and analysis on emerging trends in Mobile Devices presented by MarketNet . . .

Some 40 plus years since its origin, Moore’s Law is alive and well. For those of you not familiar with it, Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, postulated around 1965 that “[the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits would double every year]”. This was later revised to every 18 months, but is still remarkable that with all the breakthroughs and advances in the evolution of IC technology over this period, the Law still holds true and shows no indications of being broken in the near future. One might conclude this is a fact of life.

How this Law impacts daily life can be measured in so many different ways. Simply pause reading right now and take stock of your surroundings. Odds are you have some device in the room where you are that utilizes digital technology; a clock, sensor, communication device, etc.  These devices are smaller and more powerful than what were commonly available 18 months ago. Need more evidence? You are probably reading this on a flat screen computer monitor. Think of what the flat screen’s predecessor looked and performed like 18 months ago. Look farther and think back three or six years ago. Rather impressive, wouldn’t you agree? Now I want you to imagine three to six years in the future. What does this vision hold for you?  A palm sized device that could also project a high resolution image perhaps?  Or how about a Heads Up Display (HUD) on your hybrid’s windshield, which is integrated into your GPS giving you real time driving directions, restaurant options, etc.  Well, perhaps not that far in three years.   But in both instances web content would easily be important considerations for their use.

If you find yourself thinking something like “While technologists and device manufacturers might find all this fascinating, why is this important to me?” Let me ask you to bear in mind one specific example used earlier: mobile devices.

I am willing to venture that since you are reading this article you have some role in the creation and or evolution of a web presence. And that probably involves sprucing up, enhancing, or even a complete redesign of that presence. You may even be looking at options for establishing an online site built from the ground up. If any of these are true, and if your goal is to improve or begin communicating your company’s or brand’s message interactively, then considerations for mobile devices should be a top priority. It is very important to understand the impact and proliferation of mobile devices, especially when Moore’s Law is applied to a common economic principle:  As technology becomes cheaper, faster and standardized, consumers will be more likely to procure and use it.

Even though the future penetration for mobile devices and data consumption is yet to be determined, especially when it comes to market projections about the US, one thing is certain: the cost of getting this technology into the hands of the average consumer has dropped. Contemplate how Apple led the way this year when they released their second generation iPhone and cut prices by 200 dollars over the original model. Since then other carriers have slashed prices on similar devices (RIM’s Blackberry devices on Verizon, Google’s Android on T Mobile and Samsung on Sprint to name a few) in time for this holiday shopping season.

When comparisons are made of the mobile device industry with such recent technologies as home computers and music devices (DVD and MP3 players), one can easily draw the parallels: once a technology is established and the price reaches a certain ‘widely accepted’ threshold, consumers adopt it. Mobile devices may well be reaching that level for the masses. However, as Michael Mace reported at Mobile Opportunity, only about 35% of the consumer base in the US market will be willing to pay for these data streaming mobile devices. Still a large target audience, but those numbers may change over time due to Moore’s Law . However, once those targeted 35% do decide on a carrier and model, more and more web sites will be visited. Now you can see why planning for this is so important.

The questions are flowing aren’t they?

•  What type of sites are people typically looking at when they browse on a mobile device?

•  What browsing needs have to be met when considering mobile devices?

•  Does one architecture platform meet those needs?

•  Are there any standards in place and are they easily adopted?

We’ll begin delving into these and other questions beginning in Part 2.  In the mean time, as you continue to pull up pages on your browser, begin thinking of the sites you visit in terms of smaller scale. What do you assume it will take to insure the information you seek and are searching for could be presented on a much smaller screen?

Steve Hartline
Quality Assurance
MarketNet, Inc.

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